by Turd Ferguson, TF Metals Report:
I don’t know about you, but ole Turd is sure getting sick and tired of these FOMC statements being some sort of be-all-end-all for the “markets”. And with gold UP nearly $300 or 30% since The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate back in December, maybe we should all be pulling for higher rates anyway?
But, man, this crap is getting old. The FOMC rolls out a statement (the Fedlines) at the conclusion of each meeting and then releases the actual minutes of the meeting three weeks later. First of all, why the delay? I can understand not having the complete minutes available right at the conclusion of the meeting but we’re supposed to believe that The United States Federal Reserve actually needs three full weeks for some clerk to cobble together the minutes for public release? That’s freaking absurd!
Or look at it this way…We’re supposed to believe that the BLS can come up with an uncannily accurate assessment of the amount of jobs added in any month within 2-3 days of the end of that month…BUT…The Fed needs three full weeks to spit out the minutes of its most recent meeting. GIVE ME A BREAK!
At this point, you should begin to realize what a scam this is. Do you recall the meeting of April 27 and the alleged minutes that were released on May 18. The Fedlines of April 27 were considered “dovish” and gold shot $65 higher over the next three days. However, by the time the minutes were released in May 18, a completely different picture emerged. The dovishness was gone, replaced by talk of “June rate hikes” and “live meetings”. In turn, gold was smashed $82 over the next nine days.
Here’s the complete summary from ZeroHedge follwoing the release of the minutes on May 18: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-18/fomc-minutes-show-cornered-fed-likely-hike-rates-june
As ZH and many other wondered, how in the heck could the minutes vary so much from the stated Fedlines of just three weeks earlier? Well isn’t it clear what your answer is??
WITH THE THREE WEEK LAG IN THE RELEASE OF THE MINUTES, THE FOMC/FED MANIPULATES AND MANAGES THE MESSAGE INTO WHATEVER THEME THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO SEND THE “MARKETS”.
After the disaster of the Fedline release on April 27, which sent bonds and gold higher while driving stocks lower, multiple Fed Goons were sent forth to talk up the dollar with hints of “a live meeting in June”, etc. We called this The May Fed Goon Jawboning Event and it was quite successful, all the way until the BLSBS of June 3 let the air out of their balloon. The actual minutes of the April 26-27 FOMC meeting were obviously not consistent with the theme that The Fed was putting forth in May and, so, the 3-week lag period was used to doctor/edit the minutes into whatever The Fed now intended to say.
Seriously. Think about it. Is this crazy talk? Or is this a very simple and logical explanation of how/why the minutes and Fedlines were so mismatched in May?
And now here we are in August. The Fedlines back in July were benign and gold rallied nearly $40 in the four days that followed. Since then, price has been hard capped at $1360 even while the USDJPY has fallen sharply to a low early Tuesday of 99.57. Fed Goons were then sent forth yesterday to craft a story that, once again, “rate hikes were likely” and the “September will be a live meeting”. This had the effect of propping up the dollar and weakening the yen. Within hours, the USDJPY was back to 101!! GIVE ME A FREAKING BREAK!!! Can you not see this coming?
So, let’s hope ole Turd is dead wrong. Let’s believe that our Fed Overlords have motivations that are honest and sincere. And let’s cling to the notion that the minutes released later today really are the notes of the discussions held back in July. However, if suddenly LIESman declares the minutes “surprisingly hawkish” you’ll know you’re getting played again.
Should gold be smashed as it was in May, look for support at $1340 and then $1320. If we’re dead wrong and gold rallies instead, hope for a rally and the strength to finally push through $1360.
That is all for now from The Land of The MOPE and The Home of The SPIN. More later today, after the release of the July FOMC minutes.
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