by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse:
For an example of how far we’ve fallen from the old days of free-range First World entitlement, consider the fact that investment analysts are now judging companies by how well they cater to the needs of the terrified:
Papa John’s upgraded on belief civil unrest is encouraging more pizza delivery
(MarketWatch) – Papa John’s International Inc. was upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets with analysts expressing the surprising view that diners, concerned about political and civil unrest, are choosing to stay home for pizza delivery rather than head out for a meal.
“After speaking with several large operators and industry contacts, we believe the recent decline in casual dining restaurant segment fundamentals—traffic down 3% to 5% the past several weeks—may be the result of consumers eating more at home amid the current political/social backdrop, which we believe could last through the November election,” KeyBanc analysts wrote in a note published Tuesday.
Diners’ shift to a preference for convenience will benefit pizza delivery businesses like Papa John’s, according to KeyBanc.
Papa John’s shares, which jumped 3.8% Wednesday, are up 23.0% over the past three months. The S&P 500 is up 2.9% for the last three months.
This kind of micro-fear is, not surprisingly, reflected in macro trends like defense stocks, which are now analyst favorites:
And of course gold and silver are always key parts of the chaos story. If we can’t trust the big systems to function safely or efficiently, and the biggest systems of all are fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, then opting out of paper money begins to make sense. Hence the monster run in precious metals miners during the first half of the year:
This breakdown of global civilization seems to baffle mainstream economists, leading to more or less random predictions:
IMF Called “Clowns” After Admitting They Fabricated Brexit Doom And Gloom
(Zero Hedge) – “The IMF has serious credibility problems. It has been seriously wrong for years. I hope that one of the things that the new government does is push to have some credible people running this institution… rather than the clowns currently running it,” exclaimed UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, pointing out Lagarde’s legion of fools flip-flop that the British economy will grow faster than Germany and France in the next two years – only weeks after its doom-laden warnings about Brexit.
As The Daily Mail reports, after saying that leaving the European Union could trigger a UK recession, the International Monetary Fund now expects the British economy to grow by 1.7 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year.
That is weaker than the 1.9 and 2.2 per cent growth forecasts before the referendum, but the UK is still set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the Group of Seven industrialised nations this year – behind the United States – and third-fastest next year, behind the US and Canada.
Of course, this is not the first time The IMF has unleashed comedic genius on the world…
But the new UK forecasts represent a climbdown for the global financial watchdog after it issued a string of doom-laden warnings over the damage Brexit would do.
Ahead of the referendum, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, an ally of former chancellor George Osborne, said Brexit would be ‘pretty bad, to very, very bad’ for the UK.
But the latest forecasts – and an admission that a recession is now unlikely – suggest the outlook is not as bleak as the watchdog claimed.
And again, as The Mail notes, it is not the first time the IMF has had to row back from damaging comments about the UK economy. In April 2013, the fund’s then chief economist Olivier Blanchard said Britain was ‘playing with fire’ by pressing ahead with austerity at a time of ‘very low growth’. But the IMF was quickly forced into a dramatic volte face as the UK economy sprang into life, forcing Mrs Lagarde to admit ‘we got it wrong’.
The IMF’s new chief economist Maury Obstfeld said yesterday there were ‘promising signs’ for the global economy in the first half of 2016, but added: ‘Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works.’
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