by Michael Hudson, Michael Hudson:
Summary: Great Britain’s decision to leave the EU presages a global financial meltdown that could resemble the 1930s. Banks will demand massive bailouts. We will be forced, if the banks are bailed out again, to endure harsher austerity and a prolonged depression.
Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has wiped out many bankers and global speculators. They will turn, as they did in 2008, to governments to rescue them from default. Most governments, including ours, will probably comply.
Will the American public passively permit another massive bailout of the banks? Will it accept more punishing programs of austerity to pay for this bailout? Will a viable socialism rise out of the economic chaos to halt further looting of the U.S. Treasury and the continued reconfiguration of the economy into neo-feudalism? Or will a right-wing populism, with heavy undertones of fascism, ascend to power because a failure on the part of the left to defend a population once again betrayed?
Whatever happens next will be chaotic. Global financial markets, which lost heavily on derivatives, are already in free fall. The value of the British pound has dropped by over 11 percent and British bank stock prices by over 25 percent. This decline has wiped out the net worth of many Wall Street brokerage houses and banks, leaving them with negative equity. The vote severely cripples and perhaps kills the Eurozone and, happily, stymies trade agreements such as The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). It throws the viability of NATO and American imperial designs in Eastern Europe and the Middle East into question. The British repudiation of neoliberal economics also has the potential to upend the presidential elections. The Democratic Party will, I expect, demand the rescue of Wall Street. Donald Trump and the Republicans by opposing this bailout can take power.
“A lot of banks in America and Europe that held their money in Great Britain just lost eleven percent at current exchange rates,” said economist Michael Hudson when I reached him in New York by phone. “They have probably not hedged it. There have probably been large Wall Street institutions that made bets believing that Britain would remain in the European Union. There are firms and banks, I suspect, which have lost hundreds of billions of dollars. There is talk of another Lehman Brothers. We don’t yet know who it will be.”
The Democratic Party, by rescuing Wall Street, will be unmasked as the handmaidens of the financial elite.
“I expect Obama to do whatever he is told to do by Wall Street,” Hudson said. “He has turned over management of the economy to his campaign contributors from Goldman Sachs and Chase Manhattan. He does not have views of his own, other than self-promotion. He wants his presidential library. He wants to have a big foundation like the Clintons. Most of the population will oppose a bailout, of course, and he will cry all the way to the bank.”
Economies built on scaffolds of debt eventually collapse. There comes a moment when the service of the debt, as we see in Greece, becomes unsustainable. More and more draconian austerity measures are used to pay banks and bondholders until these measures reach an intolerable and unsustainable level. The people revolt. The system crashes. This is what happened in Britain.
The war against international finance, and the array of inter-governmental systems and institutions used to enforce the predatory beast of global speculation, hasbegun. The question is who will win. Will it be the banks, which intend to continue to pillage economies? Or will be popular movements that will cancel debt and reinstatement economic and political sovereignty?
Hudson sees the crisis in Europe as, in part, spawned by the U.S. intervention in the Middle East.
“If there is anyone who is responsible for the Brexit it is Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama,” he said. “They destroyed Libya. They turned over Libyan weapons to ISIS, Al Quaeda and Al Nusra. It was their war in Syria, where many of these weapons ended up, that created the massive exodus of refugees intoEurope. This exodus exacerbated nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment. Clinton and Obama are also responsible for a huge exodus of Ukrainians. This is all a response to American war policy the Middle East and Ukraine. In central Europe, with the expansion of NATO, Washington is meanwhile demanding that governments spend billions on weapons rather than on recovering the economy.”
The Eurozone prohibits central banks from financing government budget deficits. Countries in the Eurozone have, in effect, surrendered economic and political sovereignty. They cannot create money to finance budget deficits and pump money into theeconomy. This, Hudson said, has “turned the Eurozone into a dead zone since 2008.”
“The Eurozone now shrinks economies through debt deflation,” said Hudson, author of Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroy the Global Economy (available from Amazon). “That is one of the factors that led the British and the Euro-skeptic parties to say. ‘We don’t want to be a part of a Europe run by banks that impose debt deflation. We want governments that can create their own money to re-inflate the economy and build economic recovery.’ As long as a country remains part of the Eurozone bankers will continue to lower wages and wipe out pension funds to pay bondholders. The Brexit vote reverses this rotten program. There are now calls from the Netherlands, France and Austria for a similar referendum as well.”
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