from Zero Hedge:
It appears that the Fed is now officially “one and done” because the only indicator that until recently “confirmed” a “strong recovery”, non-farm payrolls, just had a major stumble.
In yet another Goldman jinx which just two days ago boosted its payrolls forecast from 225K to 240K, moments ago the BLS reported that ADP’s ominous print was right when it said that April payrolls rose only 160K, far below the 200K expected, and higher than just 1 of 92 economist expectations. This was the lowest print since last September’s 145K.
Private payrolls rose 171K on expectations of a 195K print, with last month’s 230K revised steeply lower to 184K.
The unemployment rate also missed expectations of a drop to 4.9% and stayed flat at 5.0%.
The March 215K job growth was revised lower to 208K, while the February was also revised lower from 242K to 233K for a net -19K drop.
Worse, the household survey suggested that a whopping 316K jobs were lost in April, as the total number of employed dropped from 151,320 to 151,004.
Looking at the job quality, while part-time jobs declined by 21K, it was the full-time jobs that saw a major drop of 253K in April (per the Household Survey), confirming that the US simply can not sustain normal, “full-time” job growth.
The silver lining was that unlike last month, wage growth was more stable on both an average hourly and weekly basis, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3%, as expected, and up from a downward revised 0.2% in March. Curiously, last month’s big drop in average weekly earnings was revised higher to 2.1%, while in April weekly earnings rose 2.6%, the highest since last October.
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According to the BLS, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 160,000 in April. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 232,000 per month. In April, employment gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities, while mining continued to lose jobs. (See table B-1.)
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