The Phaserl


Perma-Bear Gets “Gored,” Buys Stocks. Contrarians Go Wild

from Wolf Street:

Sign that the Bull Market Is finally over?

Contrarians have been waiting for the moment when the last stock-market bear standing gets gored. That would be the very moment when the fabulous multi-year rally would turn into a multi-year bear market.

Month after month, year after year, bears have gotten gored, one after the other, and turned bullish on stocks. But it wasn’t enough. There were still too many bears left standing. So it would be a long wait.

But now, Bill Bonner, a widely-published stock-market bear and founder of newsletter empire Agora, who stuck to his investment choices – “heavy” on real estate, cash, and gold – even as stocks have soared, and who has squandered few opportunities to lambaste stocks, their irrational prices, and the manipulations by central banks and Wall Street, he who thinks that the US is headed for a devastating “credit crisis” worse than the Financial Crisis, well, he too just got “gored.”

It happened in an article he wrote with his trademark humor that vacillates between self-deprecation and self-flagellation. And it rattled a lot of his faithful readers.

My outlook is not as pessimistic as his. I’m by nature an optimist. But my optimism is running out of food.

My outlook on junk bonds didn’t turn bearish until mid-2014. I’d called it a credit bubble for years, but bubbles inflate. Prices go up. The time to turn bearish is when you see signs that the bubble will deflate.

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