The Phaserl


What Are The Probabilities For Lower Lows In Metals?

from GoldSeek:

Each time I look around the web, I see many calling a certain bottom in metals yet again. But, these same people have called so many certain bottoms over the years, I have lost count. So, how about if we speak a little more realistically about what is happening in the market, as we still need to look for confirmation that the bull market has returned.

Right now, we do not have final confirmation that the bull market has returned. While the probabilities have certainly increased that the bottom is in, I cannot make that claim with a high level of probability. So, rather than provide yet another discussion about the bottom being in, I thought it would be worthwhile to discuss what the probabilities are that the bottom is in, and what we will need to see to feel very confident that the long term bull market has returned in the metals and miners.

So, this week, I will go through all the factors I am taking into account in my determination, which will hopefully provide realistic guidance for your positioning in this market.

But, before we begin discussing where we are in market, I would like to spend a moment to discuss positioning for the bull market. Even though we have discussed this many times over the last year in our Trading Room, I think it is worthwhile to go through it one more time.

For those of you that read my analysis when we first opened our doors a little over 4 years ago, you may remember that we had a target top of $1,915 for gold. But, I was also noting that I was personally going to be selling once the market moved over the $1,900 region, as we were not exactly certain where the market was going to turn, as it may even come up short of the ideal target. And, as we now know, the market exceeded my target by $6.

Now, fast forward four years later, and all our members had our “BUY, BUY, BUY” boxes prominently displayed on all our metals charts week after week for quite some time. And, again, while there was potential for the market to drop a bit lower than our ideal target zone, I have suggested that this region represented a point where we have a high probability long-term bottoming point for the metals and miners. But, as we deal with non-linear markets, this represented a high probability region and not a guaranteed region. And, even in the event that the market drops one more time, I still believe the same.

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