The Phaserl


The economy and the stock market have already voted for the next president

from Market Watch:

ew Hampshire’s primary results are a sideshow compared to the most important political poll of all: The stock market.

Which is ironic, since — in contrast to the presidential campaign so far, which has confused matters more than clarified — the stock market is voting loudly and clearly: The Republicans are likely to regain control of the White House this November.

It’s easy to overlook the outsized influence that the stock market has on presidential politics, since its message doesn’t change on a day-by-day basis, or even week-to-week. Accordingly, it doesn’t fit into the daily news cycle that dominates the media’s attention.

That’s why most political commentators rarely mention the stock market or the economy — and focus instead on such earth-shattering topics as the latest “Trumpertantrum” or on which computer server a few emails were sent over a decade ago.

So remember the words of James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist in 1992, about what really determines presidential elections: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Will New Hampshire make or break any candidates?

The Granite State has a history of winnowing the field of prospective candidates from both parties. However, WSJ’s Jerry Seib explains why this year’s New Hampshire primary may be a departure from most years. Photo: AP

Contrast the stock market’s performance in those years in which the incumbent political party retains the White House with how it does when the incumbent party loses. As you can see from the chart at the top of this page, a strong stock market is correlated with the incumbent party winning. A declining stock market is associated with a change of parties at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

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