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JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

As we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is rising.  Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives asked Janet Yellen about Citigroup’s assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016.  You can read her answer below.  And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a report in which they declared that “the probability of recession within three years” has risen to “an eye-catching 76%”

“Our longer-run indicators, however, continue to suggest an elevated risk that the expansion is nearing its end, and our preferred model now puts the probability of recession within three years at an eye-catching 76%.”

The good news is that the economists at JP Morgan believe that a recession will probably not hit us within the next six months.  But due to steadily weakening economic conditions, they are convinced that one is almost certain to strike within the next few years

“When we first wrote, only manufacturing sentiment was signaling an above-average probability of imminent recession,” they said. “But recent weakening in the Richmond Fed services survey and the ISM nonmanufacturing index have now pushed the nonmanufacturing sentiment probability up somewhat as well.”

In the short term, the note says that the 6-month likelihood is only 5%, but within a year it stands at 23%, in two years 48%, and in three years the “eye-popping” 76%.

To be honest, I believe that this assessment is far too optimistic, and it appears that researchers at Citigroup agree with me.  According to them, there is a 65 percent chance that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession by the end of next year.  Last week, Janet Yellen was asked about this during testimony before Congress

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3 comments to JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession

  • Rodster

    It’s pretty tough to steamroll into a recession when we haven’t even gotten out of the depression since 2008. If it weren’t for all the Monopoly money being printed by the central banks the whole global eCONomic system would have collapsed like a house of cards.

  • Curtis

    The con game run by the housing industry and fannie and freddie was a real “hit”. The collapse was / is one of the biggest nightmares ever perpetrated on the American public. There was billions lost in the market and many (out of greed) lost every thing they had invested. There is no recovery now… there will be no recovery and only when oBozo get the U.S. into a war in the middle east will it take the minds of the sheep off the economy. Listen up people, buy beans, bullets and bullion. For those that can, GET OUT OF DODGE and into safe surroundings out of the big cities. DO IT NOW and save what you have left.

  • Deforest

    Snyder, are you pretending to be a moron or are you one? I what way Goldman Sachs and city group are different from Yellen? Draghi belongs to the Goldman’s clique, the BIS is connected to Rothschilds… Why do you oppose Bernanke, in your argumentation, to Goldman Sachs? They are the same aren’t they, yet you almost make them appear to be “whistleblowers”, they are “warning” the people. Which side are you? With the traitors or with us? Goldman and city know exactly what is going on, so enough of your BS.

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