The Phaserl


COMEX Deliveries vs SGE Withdrawals

by Koos Jansen, Bullion Star:

Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a number by which we can measure Chinese wholesale gold demand, accounted for 47 tonnes in week 42 (26 – 30 October 2015). Strangely, this is a weak number if we compare it to the rest of this year. Still, 47 tonnes of gold equals 47,000 one-kilogram bars, or 3,760 London Good Delivery bars – withdrawn from the vaults in just one week.

Year to date, an astonishing 2,165 tonnes of gold have been withdrawn from the vaults. The yearly record for withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) stands at 2,197 tonnes, set in 2013. Probably this record has already been surpassed by 6 November, though the numbers have yet to be released on 13 November. With 8 more weeks left on the calendar SGE withdrawals are set to reach 2,680 tonnes in 2015.

This year’s strong SGE withdrawals have likely been supplied by a higher share of recycled gold than in previous years, which doesn’t mean Chinese gold import was not robust in recent months. Cross-border trade statistics from around the world are slowly being released and all data signals elevated gold exports to China, matching strong SGE withdrawals. Total Chinese gold import 2015 is likely to transcend 1,350 tonnes of gold.

Last week we learned Australia has net exported 17 tonnes of gold to China in July, of which 13 tonnes were shipped directly to the mainland (an all time record) and 4 tonnes have been transported through Hong Kong.

Australia COMTRADE vs HK census july 2015
In this chart the difference between what COMTRADE discloses as Australian gold export to China (red bars) minus what Hong Kong discloses as import from Australia (blue bars), equals direct gold export from Australia to China. For more information click here.

Known Chinese non-monetary gold import (YTD) stands at 985 tonnes and Chinese domestic mining supply has reached 357 tonnes. Without counting scrap, apparent physical gold supply in China in the first three quarters of 2015 has been at least 1,342 tonnes.

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