The Phaserl


The Green Candle of Hope

from TF Metals Report:

Last month, we wrote about the recent “Death Candle” for the S&P 500. Equity investors everywhere should be sure to note with extreme caution that history is once again repeating itself.

Before we begin, please take a few moments to review this post from last month:

Again, the previous two bull markets in equities ended with massive down months, shown as huge, red “death candles” on the monthly charts:

December 2000 saw a range of 9.72% and a final loss of 4.97%. Death Candle #1.

January 2008 saw a range of 13.72% and a final loss of 6.38%. Death Candle #2

And now August 2015 saw a range of 11.64% and a final loss of 6.67%. Death Candle #3.

But in the previous two occurrences, the painting of the death candles DID NOT send the stock market immediately lower. The bear markets of 2001 and 2008 both began with “dead cat” bounces, instead. A “Green Candle of Hope”, if you will…

January 2001 saw an upside move of 4.77% and a final gain of 3.28%.

April 2008 saw an upside move of 5.88% and a final gain of 4.45%.

If October or November of 2015 follow the pattern, we’ll see an upside range of about 5.5% and a final gain of approximately 4%. For October, with a starting point of 1919 on the S&P, this implies an intra-month move to between 2020 and 2040 with a close back down near 2000. Another Green Candle of Hope.

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