The Phaserl


SHOCKING CHART: The Silver Supply Crunch Continues

by Steve St. Angelo, SRS Rocco Report:

There is no other way to describe the radical change that has taken place in several areas of the silver supply market this year other than to say…. it’s quite shocking.  While certain analysts stated that the silver supply would indeed fall this year, I don’t believe anyone could have envisioned the kind of declines experienced in the chart below.

When I first discussed this subject matter in an interview last month, I thought there might be a chance that this silver data was incorrect… a typo of some sort.  However, the second quarter figures that were just released, do confirm just how dreadful silver supply has fallen from these two areas.

With the ongoing surge in physical silver investment demand and the rapidly falling Registered Silver Inventories at the COMEX, any decline in silver supply will only exacerbate the current tightness in the silver market.

Now, when we talk about “Declines”, the market normally thinks of changes in the 2-5% range. This may not seem like a lot, but when we are discussing large figures, 2-5% can add up to a lot of silver. That being said, the figures shown in the graph below… ARE TOTALLY OFF THE CHARTS:

According to the data put out by official sources, Canada’s silver production (Jan-Jun) this year is down nearly 20% and Australia’s is down a stunning 30%.  While it’s true that Canada isn’t a large silver producer, a 20% decline is still a big number in my book.  The reason for the decline in Canadian silver production is due to several large base metal zinc mines shutting down operations last year.

As for why Australia’s silver production fell a whopping 30% decline (-9.5 million oz) in the first half of the year, part of the reason may be due to a major drop in supply from the world’s largest silver mine… the Cannington Mine.  Regardless, the combined silver supply from these two countries fell a stunning 28%, 11 million ounces in just the first half of the year.

Even though silver production has declined from some of the other leading producers, it’s quite surprising to see the 4th ranked country in the world suffer a 30% reduction in supply in one year.

According to the data put out by several sources (Mexico INEGI, Peru Ministry of Energy & Mines, Australia Dept. of Energy & Resources and Chile’s Cochilco) here are the trends of the top five producers for half-year:

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27 comments to SHOCKING CHART: The Silver Supply Crunch Continues

  • petedivine

    Looks like silver mining is collapsing and that’s with cheaper petroleum. Today’s paper silver went on sale…again. No one seems to want paper. Go figure. The silver shelves of the online bullion dealers look pretty bare. Had to make due with what was available. If they don’t have product to sell, how long before they too start closing their doors?

  • Nick

    Let them set the “official price” at 0 if they like. Once there is no supply left, the market will take care of itself.

  • Gerald

    There is plenty of silver here and online. Why do people keep saying there’s not any? The shortage at the mints is because demand is so high,not because they are running out.I can buy all I can afford,so please quit saying it is in short supply.

    • petedivine

      I don’t know why I bother to reply but…
      Provident Silver eagles are 19.04 if you buy $500 and pay in cash. Spot is at $14.80. The difference is $4.24 cents per coin or $2,120 for a monster box. They are out of Silver eagles. They are out of most one ounce generic coins, and most 5 oz generic coins. Same thing with the other online bullion dealers. They either charge high premiums for what stock remains or they don’t have it in stock.

      • petedivine

        Should say…they are our of Silver Mapes.

      • Gerald

        I didn’t say how much it cost,I said it is available.You want a 1000 oz bar? It is available in East Texas.And Apmex seems to have silver eagles too.How many you want? I picked up a roll also from a local dealer.If I had several thousand to spend,I would not have a problem getting it.Sure,it has a high premium,but that does not mean you can’t get it.

        • JMiller

          You are correct. Also plenty of silver on eBay from the major sellers like Apmex, JM Bullion, MCM, Liberty Coin etc…

        • petedivine

          I guess you can’t read. There are zero silver maples. There are almost zero 5 ounce bars. There are almost zero 1 ounce generic ounces. Provident (a major online bullion retailer) either charges high premiums for what stock remains or they don’t have it in stock.

        • petedivine

          By the way Gerald and JMILLER. I think the government should fire you both. Your a waste of tax revenue.

          • JMiller

            Sorry Pete but I do not work for the government. I like how people assume that you work for the government just because you state some facts that they do not agree with. Sure there is a silver shortage if you compare it to times when silver was in great abundance. But I have no problem finding silver Eagles and silver bars from many online dealers. Here is one below.


            And every weekend there are silver deals on eBay by major sellers.

            • JMiller

              Also based on the precious metals forums I visit some people say that their LCS has very little silver. Some say that their LCS has silver but they are not selling it at this low price. Some other say that their LCS has plenty of silver and one guy said his LCS is selling generic for spot. So it depends on where you live and who you deal with.

            • Eric

              And as usual, everyone thinks it’s all about me. “But I have no problem finding silver Eagles and silver bars from many online dealers.” High premiums are a sign of supply shortage. How long have you guys been stacking? A roll here a tube there? Try placing a large order and see how well that goes. Those retailers could be cleaned out any day here.

              • JMiller

                It’s all about me? Anyone can by from these online dealers not just me.

                “High premiums are a sign of supply shortage”. Yes, usually that is the case. I never said that there was no silver shortage at all.

                “Try placing a large order”. How large of an order are you talking about Eric?

                • Eric

                  I don’t know. How many idiots are out there with more than $10,000 in worthless federal reserve notes still sitting in Bank of America or JP Morgan?

                  I have to admit. I knew Americans were stupid. But I never thought they were this stupid.

          • Gerald

            Got news for you. I buy silver fairly often.I don’t work for anyone as I’m retired. Just tired of people saying there ain’t no more when there is.No need to stretch the truth.

            • Eric

              Who said there “ain’t no more?”

              If you guys had any clue you would realize that the only reason you can still stack silver is because 99% of Americans are basically morons!

              What you see right now is with 1% of Americans stacking silver while at the same time, most of them don’t realize that the “money” they have in their bank account does not belong to them.

              Now imagine what it will look like when 2% of Americans decide they need to be stacking silver.

  • Mai Tonami

    I just tried sourcing some AG for a friend via Republic Metals Corporation in Miami. They have NO AG or AU for sale. NOTHING for two months.Orders are backed up TWO MONTHS people. Zero ounces for sale!


    • KRELL427

      Just bought some RMC kilo bars today in Toronto at A-Precious metals for $707canadian has lots of products in stock and I was the only one in the store .

      • petedivine

        I went to my LCS this past Monday. I was the only one in the store and he was back ordered several weeks on mercury dimes, silver Eagles, silver maples, and Morgans. What’s your point? Do you recall the premium over spot. My LCS was charging $3.00 over spot for generic silver 1 ounce coins. There is silver on the shelves but its not tracking the COMEX spot price.

  • Dante

    The one thing we’re consistently hearing is that there’s no 90% available for sale. Here’s a breakdown from a few well-known PM retailers of various sizes as of today. The products can consist of 90% bags, rolls, sets, singles, proofs, etc. Make of this as you will:

    Out of 135 90% silver products, 28 are “not available” or “sold out”.

    Out of 16 90% products, 2 are “out of stock” and 4 are “delayed”.

    Out of 12 90% silver products, ALL are available.

    Out of 24 90% silver products, 14 are “out of stock”.

    • Gerald

      You might want to try local dealers for 90%.Ours have quite the selection.

      • Dante

        Personally, Gerald, I’m not looking for any, as I’m pretty well covered in that regard, but I just wanted to throw out some figures. Like I said, “make of this as you will”.

        Seems to me that stock is fairly plentiful with some of these dealers. Personally, I believe there’s probably specific variables that determine availability of 90%, as you can see from the availability from the dealers I posted. But it looks to me as though there’s enough available across the board (AT THE MOMENT) to fly in the face of claims that there’s no 90% available. But I have no doubt that this will change as conditions worsen.

    • petedivine

      Let me add a little color to your post.

      Apmex is the largest online seller on PMs in America and they have zero 90%

      I looked at the Provident 90%. Thought the $6 over spot was ludicrous. Delayed means…they don’t have it.

      I never shopped at the other two sites. So cannot comment.

      • Dante

        Hence my comment to “make of this as you will.”

        Bottom line, 90% IS still available, contrary to some claims by a few on-air personalities. For “how long?” is the only question.

      • Dante

        I’ll color it further. Just for the heck of it, I went back on to the APMEX site. You say they have zero 90%? How have you come to that conclusion? Selective vision maybe? They have PLENTY of 90%, as I stated in my original post.

  • Troy

    Provident Metals sell their own “Prospectors”… one ounce round and one ounce bars are sold out/stock delay …it seems they have been like that for a couple months now…those are two examples of silver items they can’t keep up with demand…so yes the demand for silver is going up up up. I have noticed that lots of generic rounds and bars, Eagles, are sold out/stock delay at many dealers. I’m just hoping that silver’s price goes down more, so then demand will go even higher…basically we need to dry up the silver supply to actually see what silver is really worth. In the mean time I will be buying 10 ounce bars every payday, and some one ounce rounds…I ordered 6 of these last week, can’t wait to see em

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