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The Illusion of Certainty

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls:

If you read and understand the principles contained in the discussion below, you will have learned important principles of analysis which will raise your “IQ” by at least 10 points, because these are analytical principles which virtually no one around you has even heard of — not even most of our Overlords. Of course the concept of an “intelligence quotient” is, itself, another illusion, but that is the subject of an entirely separate analysis…

This was taken from a discussion on an earlier thread:

Though looking at the Big Picture (the long term) we can clearly see the overall strategies of the banksters. The patterns are unmistakable, which is the beauty of Big Picture-analysis. It is impossible to hide one’s strategies from anyone looking closely at the Big Picture, and possessing at least decent analytical skills. This is why when I reach my own conclusions here (unlike most other commentators) I am completely unequivocal. I don’t say I “think” something is taking place. I say I know it is happening. The Big Picture doesn’t lie.

Then we descend to the next level of time-horizon: the medium term. Here people need to learn one of the fundamental principles of probability and statistics. As our time-horizon narrows, our degree of certainty ALWAYS DECREASES — in direct, proportional terms. If you learn (and understand) this principle, you will possess an analytical skill which (virtually) no one else possesses, in our entire societies.

Nobody understands that the moment we narrow our focus to shorter and shorter time-horizons that our level of certainty MUST decrease rapidly. I know that nobody else understands this, because every day we see ignorant commentators (in both the mainstream and Alternative media) pretending that they can be just as certain about medium-term, short-term, and even immediate-term trends as they are about long-term (Big Picture) trends. Pure self-delusion.

It is infantile, because it reflects a fundamental lack of understanding. It’s more than mere ignorance, because few people even try to apply this principle to their own reading (and understanding) of events. And what comes after ignorance? Stupidity.

So now we descend merely to the medium term, and instantly our level of certainty starts to diminish. As we view the medium-term trends, we see a confluence of events, things “moving together” toward a nexus-point. That nexus-point is (at best) fuzzy. And because of our Principle, even as we move closer and closer to the Nexus, it NEVER BECOMES CLEARER. It remains just as fuzzy.

Observe as I applied this principle in my own work. In The Next Crash in 2016; I wrote this:

Pollock notes that the (next) crash itself will occur in 2016; to be timed immediately prior to the next U.S. presidential election.

I wrote this in November, 2014. While it’s somewhat arbitrary (in temporal terms), we’ll call this my “long term analysis”. Put another way; if I had possessed all this information sooner; I could have written this commentary in 2012, or even 2010. What do you see in that “prediction”? A general, Big Picture time frame.

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2 comments to The Illusion of Certainty

  • Chris Thomas

    Mr. Nielson,

    Thank you so much for taking the time to spell out a basic component of strategic thinking. Many of us have become too confused, as our current educational system has designed us to be. Things like critical thinking and strategic analysis are undervalued just about everywhere except West Point. It seems to me though, that this article may be easily overlooked by the people that could benefit from it most.
    Granted, your articles offer great value over a fairly wide spectrum of subjects, but have you considered something along the lines of a weekly educational article or snippet of some sort? Waiting on “Useless Feeders” around us to expire will ultimately diminish our chances as well-and definitely diminish my patience. I would aim toward making some of these feeders more useful.

    THX,
    CT

  • KSKing

    Excellent article. Seeing the big picture is challenging in and of itself. Throw in the amount of designed complexity and more importantly the staggering scale of deception and it makes it darn near impossible to ‘see’ what is going on. But as always remember that the medias (and unfortunately this includes at least ‘some’ of the alt media) job is to deceive and distract. Hard to make any rational/accurate conclusions when your data is faulty.

    GIGO – garbage in, garbage out

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