The Phaserl


Gold Facts and Gold Speculations

by Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor:

Gold was valuable 3,000 years ago and will be valuable 3,000 years from now. But can you say the same for dollars, euros, yen, or pounds?

Gold maintains its value (on average) over centuries. Can you expect similar longevity for debt based fiat currencies that are managed by politicians and created with printing presses or computers in central banks?

If “printing money” truly created wealth individuals and countries would be much wealthier since most central banks have been “printing” rapidly. The Fed has “printed” about $4 Trillion since the 2008 crisis to bailout banks and “stimulate” the economy. In today’s prices that would be about 3 billion ounces of gold, or approximately 30 years of global gold production. Central banks want to manage economies by using paper and digits instead of real physical gold.

Gold Facts and Gold Cycles:

Gold prices over the past 40 years have been manipulated up and down of course, but we can mostly agree that historical prices are facts. Note the graph below of gold prices – log scale over 40 years – and note the green vertical lines every 98 months – about every 8 years. Major lows have occurred about every 8 years.

B-Gold lows

Note a similar graph below showing gold highs.  Vertical red lines are spaced 95 months apart – about every 8 years.  Major highs have occurred about every 8 years.

B-Gold highs

Gold price parallels:

Date                                          Price (Appx.)

August 1971                            $42

April 1974                                 $189

August 1976                            $101

January 1980                          $850

April 2001                                 $255

August 2011                            $1,923

July 2015                                 $1,072

  • From August 1971 (when President Nixon “temporarily” terminated the dollars for gold agreement with the world) to April of 1974, gold increased in price by about a factor of 4.5. It then dropped by about 47% in 2 1/3 years.

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