The Phaserl


Europe in free fall

from The Vineyard of the Saker:

Europe is in free fall. Nobody can doubt that any more. In fact, the is EU simultaneous suffering from several crucial problems and any one of them could potentially become catastrophic. Let’s look at them one by one.

The 28 member EU makes no economic sense

The most obvious problem for the EU is that it makes absolutely no economic sense. Initially, in the early 1950s, there was a small group of not too dissimilar nations which decided to integrate their economies, these were the so-called Inner Six who founded the European Community (EC): Belgium , France , West Germany , Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. In 1960 this “core group” was joined by seven more countries, the Outer Seven, who were unwilling to join the EC but wanted to join a European Free Trade Association (EFTA). These are Austria , Denmark , Norway , Portugal , Sweden , Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Together these countries formed what could loosely be called “most of western Europe”. For all their faults, these treaties did reflect a reality – that the countries participating in them had much in common and that their peoples wanted to join forces.

After 1960, the history of the European integration and expansion became very complicated and while it progressed in zig-zags with regular setbacks, at the end of the day this process ended growing uncontrollably, just like a malignant tumor. Today the EU includes 28 (!) member states including all of what used to be called “central” and “eastern” Europe – even the ex-Soviet Baltic Republics are now part of this new union. The problem is that while such an expansion was attractive to the European elites for ideological reasons, such huge expansion makes no economic sense at all. What do Sweden, Germany, Latvia, Greece and Bulgaria have in common? Very little, of course.

Now cracks are clearly appearing. The Greek crisis and the threat of a “Grexit” has the potential for a domino effect involving the rest of the so-called “PIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain). Even France is threatened by the consequences of these crises. The European currency – the Euro – is a “currency without a mission”: is it supposed to support the German economy or the Greek one? Nobody knows, at least officially. In reality, of course, everybody understands that Frau Merkel is running the show. Quickfix solutions, which is what the Eurobureaucrats are offering, do only buy time, but they are offering no solution to what is clearly a systemic problem: the completely artificial nature of a 28 member EU.

As for the the obvious solution, to give up on the crazy dream of a 28 member EU, it is so absolutely politically unacceptable that it won’t even be discussed even while everybody fears it.

The EU is on the verge of a social and cultural collapse

The undeniable reality is simple as it is stark:

  • The EU cannot absorb so many refugees
  • The EU does not have the means to stop them

A massive influx of refugees present a very complex security problem which EU countries are not equipped to deal with. All EU countries have three basic instruments they can use to protect themselves from unrest, disorders, crime or invasions: the special/security services, the police forces and the military. The problem is that neither of these are capable of dealing with a refugee crises.


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