The Phaserl


Gold Price Forecasting, the Hard Core Academic Way

from Perth Mint:

I keep in touch with the work of academics interested in gold via this website and it is a humbling experience. It reminds me of the saying “those who can’t do, teach; those who can’t teach, blog” (I thought it needed updating).

That website recently posted a September 2014 paper by Dirk Baur, Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj called Gold Price Forecasts in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework – Have the Determinants Changed Over Time?

No doubt you have seen many commentators writing about their forecasts for the gold price and giving reasons (which is basically their “model” for what drives the gold price). But I bet you have never seen a gold forecasting blog post that include one of these:

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