The Phaserl


Gold Sentiment Not Bearish Enough

by Jordan Roy-Byrne, Gold Seek:

Precious metals are closing the week out with a good rally. The Federal Reserve nonsense proved to be a catalyst as it can be in either direction. Regardless of the Fed, the precious metals sector was oversold and due for a bounce. We wrote about that last week. Maybe this could be the bear market bottom. Maybe not. It concerns us that Gold is rebounding from an area of insignificant long term support amid sentiment that is not at a bearish extreme. Extreme bearish sentiment coupled with very strong support raises the probability of a major rebound or bear market bottom. I don’t see that for Gold, yet.

Below is a weekly line chart of Gold with its net COT position at the bottom. Gold will close the week around $1180/oz and avoid a break below the channel. However, Gold’s COT is far from a bearish extreme. Gold’s three best rallies in the past two years began with its net speculative position at or below 10% (of open interest). As of last Tuesday the net position was 22%. Gold may need this to be below 10% before it can bottom.

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