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Precious Metals: The Forecasting Problem

The problem is not that there are problems. The problem is expecting otherwise and thinking that having problems is a problem.” – Theodore Rubin

by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Silver-coin-investor:

The media sensation surrounding various storms of the century has been astounding. Meteorological prediction is complex science to say the least. The fact that 24 hour forecasts have become almost 87% accurate over the years is a testament to modern science – and, in particular, chaos theory.

However, the ability to predict large and rare events like big storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and blizzards, is extremely difficult because these storms ultimately manifest based on an array of very statistically small probabilities – too small for mathematical prediction and, therefore, reliable modeling. Of course, that never stops the media and its incessant need to churn attention and traffic.

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