from Gold Broker:
The first hypothesis is that the present bear market is not finished and it would have another one or two legs down all the way to where it started at $300. On a technical basis, it can be defended if you believe $1,900 was the end of a bubble started in 2000. I don’t. Many other technical, but also fundamental, factors make me give this scenario a very low probability.
The second hypothesis is that we will retrace down to the area of $1000 to $700. This scenario is more probable but, in my view, it should have happened by now and sentiment indicators are so bearish that I don’t see a move to $700, which would be a total retracement of the bull leg started in 2009. A short spike to $1000 is more possible, which would be approximately a 50% retracement from the top, but I think it should have happened by now.
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