The Phaserl


Kurzweil’s Black Swans

by George Smith, Gold Seek:

What can we expect in 2015? Global recession and civil disorder top the list, according to what I read. Given the way central banks and governments have sabotaged free markets at every turn, coupled with the belligerent nature of U.S. foreign policy and the militarization of our police, both forecasts strike me as plausible.

But the plausible doesn’t need forecasting, does it? We need to be reminded of it, certainly, and in that sense it’s critical. But what we really want to know is: Are any black swans on the horizon?

There are two problems with black swans. One is predicting them: how do you predict an event that by definition comes as a surprise? The other is convincing people that this surprising event will in fact occur.

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