from The Burning Platform:
The bulls declared victory on Friday with a large bounce back. But, the chart below from John Hussman will provide you with some perspective. Bull markets are boring and methodical. Volatility is low and the gains are slow and steady. Volatility spikes dramatically during bear markets. It works in both directions. Large down moves are followed by large up moves, but the overall direction is down. We’ve entered a world of pain. The up days will keep people believing, while they get their hearts ripped out and their net worth gets gutted again. Market internals have turned negative, as Dr. Hussman notes:
Abrupt market losses typically reflect compressed risk premiums that are then joined by a shift toward increased risk aversion by investors. In market cycles across history, we find that the distinction between an overvalued market that continues to become more overvalued, and an overvalued market is vulnerable to a crash, often comes down to a subtle but measurable shift in the preference or aversion of investors toward risk – a shift that we infer from the quality of market action across a wide range of internals.
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