by Ken Jorgustin, Modern Survival Blog:
Could the deadly Ebola virus rage into a worldwide pandemic which eradicates half of all human life with a year? The headline reads extremely dramatic and sensational, I know…
Based on recent statements that the number of Ebola cases has been doubling about every three weeks, a simple math exercise reveals the following:
First, I will say that the following simple mathematical exercise of Ebola transmission is (hopefully) unlikely (to be this extreme) given that the current “reproduction number” (1.5 – 2) is based on that from the stricken African countries, and would hopefully lessen somewhat from quarantine and advanced medical efforts taken in developed countries.
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