The Phaserl


In Detail, Why The New Homes Sales Report Was Completely Flawed

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:

Gyrating wildly month-to-month, as seen also with the extreme and unstable monthly reporting of the housing-starts series in Commentary No. 660, headline August new-home sales rose by an incredible 18.0% for the month. Even more incredible—as to why the Census Bureau even bothers to publish the current detail—a headline monthly gain of that magnitude was not statistically-significant at the 95% confidence level. – John Williams,

I know I’m beating the drums often on the housing market. But I had it pegged fairly accurately at the top in 2005/2006 and was too busy with the precious metals market to take advantage of it. The housing market is crumbling again, and what’s been promoted as a “recovery” is nothing more than a multi-trillion dollar stimulus-fueled dead-cat bounce that is rolling over and headed below where it was after the first leg down.

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