by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
- Mortgage applications continue to plummet.
- Housing starts take a big drop in June.
- The increase in the homebuilder sentiment index is deceptive.
- Homebuilder stocks are negatively diverging from the S&P 500.
With middle class household income after inflation declining and the first-time homebuyer cohort over-leveraged on student loan, credit card and auto loan debt, it’s no wonder that mortgage applications filed to purchase a home are plunging. Folks, the demographic I just described historically is the majority of the housing market – not big institutional funds and flippers looking to make a quick buck. If first-time buyers and middle class “move-up” buyers aren’t buying, the market eventually collapses.
With propaganda in ALL areas of our economic and political system now at levels that would make George Orwell put a gun to his temple and pull the trigger, I’ve sifted thru the nonsense coming from Wall Street and CNBC and have written an article explaining why the next down-leg in the housing market is about to unfold.
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