The Phaserl


Preserve Your Wealth While the Economy Shrinks

from Daily

Let’s start with bad news about the macro-side of the U.S. economy — and it’s very bad, indeed. You may have seen last month’s report out of the U.S. Commerce Department. U.S. gross domestic product (or GDP, a measure of the economy) delivered its worst performance in five years during the first quarter of 2014.

Revised government figures indicated that GDP shrank at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of this year. The decline was worse than the previous 1% growth estimate. It was far below expectations of many name-brand economists in major media outlets, who get paid to find silver linings and not scare the public.

Actually, negative GDP growth of -2.9% was likely an understatement. That is, it’s worse because government statistic-crunchers “deflated” nominal GDP with low inflation numbers that exclude food and energy. As anyone knows, though, based on visiting a supermarket or gas station, price levels for these items alone are climbing rapidly. Thus, true inflation is higher than officially reported; and the so-called -2.9% contraction in GDP is also a low-ball government number.

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