by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com
Thomson Reuters GFMS is perhaps the go-to organisation for detailed gold analysis although, as with any such organisation, its interpretations of data may be open to question by some who disagree, and its projections don’t always come about. Even so, gold market followers may be disturbed by GFMS’s latest analysis and projections which suggest that the gold price will only average $1,225 this year – actually 13% down on last year’s average figure of $1,411.23. So far this year gold has managed to average around $1,296 to date and, at the time of writing, is a little over $1,300. Thus the GFMS report suggests that gold will fall over the next few months, perhaps down to as low as $1,100 but may pick up towards the end of the year to around $1,400. However looking further ahead there is little comfort for the bulls as GFMS is predicting further weakness in 2015.
GFMS statistics are used by a number of organisations and companies for their own internal usage and the latest projections are thus likely to impact forward new mine project planning and financing which could have a longer term impact on mine production – but even here GFMS’s latest analysis has come up with figures for 2013 mine production for gold which is counter to the assumptions made by many other analysts and observer.
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