by Michael Noonan, Edge Trader Plus:
Almost without exception, the money from a profitable trade is made before position entry. This is another way of saying that the success or failure for every trade is a function of the analytic process leading up to taking a position.
The better the analysis, the higher the probability of a positive outcome. All recommendations are based upon pattern recognition and a triggering bar. We use intra day time frames for timing once an assessment has been made from viewing higher time frames, daily and weekly.
One can never know how a market will develop once a commitment is made. For example, in the Swiss Franc loss from Tuesday, 4 March, the trigger bar was one we use all the time. The very next bar, after the trade recommendation, altered the picture, somewhat, but it was after the fact. It diminished the odds of a successful outcome, but not enough to exit right away. No method is perfect.
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