from Jesse’s Café Américain:
Last night Nick Laird showed me some excellent original data analysis from his site, Sharelynx.com, that demonstrates that a decline in the price of gold during an FOMC week is no sure thing, but more normally distributed. And we have to balance that against a different, and much less statistically robust graph, that was on ZH, and which I also presented here, that clearly showed declines in FOMC weeks, and no similar declines in off weeks, but for a much shorter period of time.
Nick looked at full weeks, and even much tighter spreads of days, but only looked at FOMC events, and a lot of them going back to 2006, and then even to 1994. I plan on looking at some of his data much more closely, but it does drive home the conclusion that simply betting blindly on around certain events does not work. If it was that easy, everyone would do it. Rather, there are other variables at play, of that I am certain. And I will take a much closer analytical look at all the data, and not just cycles and dates, when I have a greater opportunity.
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