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What the Metals Experts Still Don’t Understand

by Thomas Goehle, SGT Report.com:

I want to start by bringing up a few examples of how the metals experts continue to underestimate those in power. I start with the examples below, not so much to criticize, but to underpin what I have to say about how underestimating the powers-that-be (TPTB) ties in with confiscation of the purchasing power of our metals.

I think one thing that confounds me is that if the metals experts know that all markets are manipulated then why are they “surprised” that things continue for as long as they have? We’re always told that “it can’t go on much longer.” As Andrew McGuire told Eric King 7 weeks or so ago concerning the paper gold price dipping below 1300 – it’s “unsustainable.” Yes, we heard it was unsustainable when gold dipped below 1700, 1600, and then 1500 because of the “imminent” failure to deliver (default) and also because the Chinese were “putting a floor under the price.” Well that “floor” is about four floors down now at $1250.

Likewise, I don’t understand David Morgan’s prediction that gold can’t go lower because of what he labels the “Shanghai put.” When gold slipped from 1920 to 1750 we heard the same thing. It can’t go much lower because of the “Chinese floor.” In an interview with Greg Hunter on December 17, Morgan stated concerning gold, “definitely the bottom is in.” Actually, we won’t know this until at least 6 months to a year after the fact.

However I agree with Morgan that $26 for silver is the first hurdle and 1550 (I would argue 1485) is overhead resistance for gold. Those targets are a long way off. His call for $30-34 silver and $1700 gold by year’s end seems improbable to me. I don’t think the paper metal prices are going anywhere this year despite Morgan’s prediction or Turk’s call for an “explosion” in the metals prices for 2014. I think we have a better chance of hitting $1000 for paper gold this year than $1500. Why would anyone be surprised? The markets are manipulated.

Moreover, many folks continue to underestimate the lengths TPTB will go to achieve their nefarious agendas. Many continue to underestimate the power and influence and coordination it takes to continue this fraud. But the cheating and manipulating go on unabated. I just don’t understand how anyone who is awake can continue to be mystified by this anymore.

I think the single most important thing to watch is the 10yr note. When the 10yr breaks 3.00 and holds above 3.5 for 6 months or more, things will start to get interesting. Look how desperately they are defending 3.00 on the 10yr right now. When we get over 4.00 on the 10yr then things will really start to crack. As long as they can hold interest rates down, this whole fabricated economy could go on for a while. I certainly don’t foresee hyperinflation (Williams) occurring this year, for example.

This is what the experts in the metals market really don’t understand and why I decided to write this article. We are probably not going to be living in paradigm1 a whole lot longer (5-10 years tops) where everything is relatively normal. So, to take just one example, when Mike Maloney (who I respect for his historical work on the metals and fiat) blissfully forecasts that the metals will protect our purchasing power, he and many others fail to realize what I think should be obvious by now, but apparently isn’t. By the time the metals rise in real terms (true price discovery) we probably won’t be living in paradigm1 anymore, we will be swiftly transitioning to paradigm2. You know, paradigm2 where there may be riots, martial law, more rights taken away, curfews, etc.. If this plays out like I think it will then I don’t foresee the purchasing power of our metals transitioning seamlessly from paradigm1 to paradigm2 like Maloney thinks. Do you really think TPTB are going to sit by and reward us for our prescience in purchasing precious metals? No, they are going to CONFISCATE a lot of purchasing power through TAXATION. IMHO if you haven’t already thought about this as a possibility then you may want to consider this as part of your preparation.

In conclusion, I still think the metals provide one of the best insurance policies for what’s coming and I also think the bull market in gold and silver will commence again – but not this year and probably not with the paper price mechanism. I think we need to look at the future price rise in metals in the context of paradigm2 where TPTB are taking our rights away on a daily basis. Why then would you think they are going to sit by and watch those that oppose them get rich? I am bringing up the possibility of confiscation through taxation for all of us to think about because the experts won’t talk about this and they seem continually “surprised” by the efficacy of the manipulators. Considering where this country is heading, I think we need to include the possibility of confiscation through taxation as part of our financial and psychological preparation.

Manipulation won’t stop just because the paper markets will be a thing of the past someday. If we can foresee bail-ins for bank accounts and 401ks, then why is it so hard to imagine the cheaters and liars stealing purchasing power of the metals through taxation?

Godspeed to all- Tom G.

71 comments to What the Metals Experts Still Don’t Understand

  • SGT

    [Ed. Note: Before we throw in the towel on the metals for 2014, I’d like to note that we just interviewed Andy Hoffman who remarked that the Comex is probably in a technical default for the December contract – and the whole world knows it…! Stay tuned.]

  • Bob A

    Bravo!!!!!!! Finally someone who speaks words better than I. We need to continue to call these jokers out! I haven’t even read the whole article just yet, I was just happy that someone else was saying these clowns have to stop, because they are an embarrassment to themselves. I don’t even listen to anything Morgan or Turk say anymore. I lost all respect for them and others.

  • Rainmaker

    Interesting article, and one that illustrates how far many of us are from reality. In addition to the Comex being in default, is it probable that there have been other defaults and collateral isand has been being called in, even if we are not being made aware of it (even if we don’t want to admit it). To be more specific and to the point, and with all due respect to Tom G.s article, the value of Gold does not have to increase in order for the ratio of FRNs vs OZs of Au to increase. All that needs to happen is for the purchasing power (value) of the FRNs to decrease by half, and technically, the price of Au as valued in FRNs would double. The OZ of Au would still have the same purchasing power (value), and the FRNs value would decrease by half. Perhaps we should reconsider John Williams perspectives?

  • dan

    TPTB will share the same fate as us peon’s….they will not enjoy their ill gotten gains ..them or their minions….as a wise man once said..only two things are certain Taxes and Death…most will experience BOTH……some sooner then paradigm2….imho

  • PTS

    Hey Tom G,

    Thank you for your well-thought-out article.

    This is how I see things:

    Short Term (1-5 years) – Who knows? Anything can happen from stagflation (things remain about the same) to sweeping changes in the monetary systems of the world. The longer things remain stable, the longer we have to prepare for the dark days, so I am not necessarily in a hurry to see the sweeping changes.

    Medium Term (5-10 years) – Something has GOT to give. The US will pay for its indebtedness, as well as our lazy hand-out loving, entertainment-worshiping, war-mongering, latest iPhone-buying generation. Having metals will help a person be better off than most, but it won’t be pretty. If there is war between US and the East over our debts, we will get our tails kicked. We have lost our wealth, our factories, and our work ethic.

    • Rainmaker

      IMHO, the reason we might have time left is so that those that are holding questionable paper assets need time to convert them into tangible assets without use of force. Once those transactions are no longer, why would any state allow another to float bad paper and continue a “beggar they neighbor” policy if there was no benefit, short of military intervention? Especially if the state threatening military intervention has to borrow the money to do so.

    • Hannon

      China has two rivers that supply water to it’s whole population, anyone with two viles of bio weapons can kill almost the whole country. Check out China on google maps and you’ll see that about three quarters of the country is a useless desert. That’s why they are always up Tibet’s butt, all their water flows from there. In my opinion, in a world war situation, China’s lack of water and high population makes them the most vulnerable country there is.

      • PTS

        Interesting point about China’s rivers…but one also has to take into account their Eastern buddy Russia, who like China and India is hoarding gold like there’s no tomorrow and is no friend of the US.

        Hopefully cool heads prevail…

        • Ed_B

          “…but one also has to take into account their Eastern buddy Russia, who like China and India is hoarding gold like there’s no tomorrow…”

          We should also take into account that Russia is on the inside of whatever plan the Chinese are hatching that requires a lot of gold to achieve. These two countries are hoarding LOTS of gold; not because it is pretty but because they KNOW something that many others do not. It would be smart of us to pay attention to this and join in to the extent that we can.

  • Owl

    Nice contrast from the usual “it’s time to load up the trucks” articles. I have stated before that if the game is rigged then the riggers will have the upper hand for a long time. There are no magic “Market Forces” that will cause them to abandon their present strategies… THEY are the market force… They will continue on as long as they are able to do so. The “Jackass”, Jim Willie, says the big currency reset will be this year, we shall see.

    A lot of these guys like Sprott, Casey, Embry, Rule etc. are also pushing mining stocks. In their case they are really greasing a company called Brazil Resources. Could it be because they are heavily invested in it and it has dropped in price by +50% over the past year or so?

    • Rainmaker

      Everyone is peddling their own book, Jim Willie included. And I agree, no one knows for sure regarding reset or what form the “come to Jesus” day is going to be, however, when he said “I don’t think the United States is going to be killed as the host. I think it’s going to be bled to death and harvested for its organs, and done so by China.”, well, that quote, that thought, had already occurred to me, but it still struck me as a paradigm I was not ready to accept. Its hard to admit, but were are being bled to death. And it might not be only China, but other institutions and states. My gut tells me, “nuthin happens by accident”.

      • lastmanstanding

        Rain, JW was freakin hilarious the other day…”the shit dollar”…lmao!!!

        Fuel of any kind is the key to all of this…”the come to Jesus” moment.

        Frankly, I think that fuel/gas/energy of any kind is dirt cheap right now. This could be the deflationary period that everyone talks about before everything skyrockets.

        Americans like their mobility, like to be warm. The poor are just as mobile/warm as the wealthy. (for now) Just in a different manner. Americans used to get all of the fuel. That has been changing. I could speculate as to why but then I would be just like the rest…and opinion/shared ideas are good…just need to use the info wisely.

        When they finally blow the fuel prices…hang on to your ass.

        • Rainmaker

          Lastman, problem is, we don’t own shit, they already bet the farm and lost and all that is left is a bunch of chits and the folks that lost (stole) are already long gone, or get a pass. In the meantime, those from the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave are going to get to pay the vig and pass it down to their progeny. Should I be more afraid of the thumbreakers than I am of my fellow sheeples? You tell me, this paddock is full of crap and no one wants to shovel the shit, they just want to eat for free. We are now land of the SHE and home of the SLAVE. Wouldn’t it be great if we could all quit watching TV and just tell them to stick the default where the sun don’t shine.

  • Nick

    I’m not sure how effective taxing precious metals would be. It seems to me it would just create a black market.

  • BCG

    A wise man knows how little he knows

    its just as silly to be sure that this is going to be a knockdown drag out slow burn as it is to say that collapse lurks around the corner tomorrow

    I get the impression that Tom is trying to temper expectations so that new folks who start coming in because of their very rational concerns don’t get pumped up with dreams of riches without working

    If you’re here, you’re right, so sit tight, if something happens tomorrow you’re ready and if it doesn’t happen tomorrow take the opportunity to get more ready.

    Just play it smart and you’ll be fine – they can’t tax your precious metals if you don’t sell them, kapeesh?

  • northwind

    I’ve been in the black market before, many years ago. it’s the third oldest profession just after the famous first two.

  • david

    with ag,its a tiny market,im in ag for tat among other reasons,riots and confiscation will not be relegated to ag and au…it will be moreso @ gas stations,grocery stores for food and water,most dont even know te VALUE OF AU AND AG,tobacco and whiskey will be more sought out,after food and water.You make some points tat have been made a few years ago and i tink your thesis is outdated.

  • Owl

    For a little perspective, read or listen to the Peden lecture over at: http://mises.org/daily/3663

    It is a good overview on how to destroy an economy by trying to preserve the power of a ruling class at any expense… even it means the eventual collapse of the entire society.

    Government oppression and taxation in ancient Rome became so bad that people were surrendering to the invading Barbarians on the condition that they would never again be subject to the Roman government.

    • Ed_B

      “Government oppression and taxation in ancient Rome became so bad that people were surrendering to the invading Barbarians on the condition that they would never again be subject to the Roman government.”

      Considering all the crap that is going on these days, that is sounding better by the day.

  • Ethan Rath

    Debt, debt, and more debt! Too much government debt, private debt, and corporate debt will, without a doubt, collapse the system and it will happen when TPTB are ready. Their ultimate goal is a colapse of the dollar, a NWO and an electronic currency so prepare for it even if we do not know the exact time frame. Mike Maloney has made an in depth study of past currencies and knows what he is talking about. Jim Sinclair has been involved with gold his entire career and knows what he is talking about. Lindsey Williams has been close to key players in TPTB for years and he knows what he is talking about. Alex Jones has warned us for a decade about TPTB and he knows what he is talking about. Many others are sounding the alarm. A currency collapse is imminent which means next week or next year or before 2020 and I pity the poor soul who is unprepared when the SHTF.

  • MoFo

    Kitco just put out a piece from the Boston Globe. The Fed is going to “inject” funds as grants into local communities. Interesting, they even mention the “private foundations”.

    • Ed_B

      I offered to send the Fed my bank account and routing numbers, just in case they wanted to “inject” a little capital my way. No response yet but then it’s only been 6 years. ;-)

  • Mike

    This article makes some sense. We know only two things we know for sure: 1. The market is manipulated 2. It really cant go on forever. So the only thing you can do is wait. I have been heart broken by the price action especially when you factor in QE4. I remember watching the trailer for Gray State and seeing the announcement for QE4. I was thinking if that really happens hold on, PMs going to the moon! What happened? They were demolished instead. Anyway good read.

  • Jeff

    Reading this article makes me think about the ‘Marshmallow Experiment’ I read about a while ago. While I agree, that people are making some pretty big predictions, I am positive that all normal indicators are telling them what they are saying is absolute truth. Since these people are truth tellers, they feel the need to share this information with everyone. I am sure that it is benevolent and meant to shed light on the global criminal ‘Rothschild / Illuminati’ banking cartel. However, the key word there is normal. Insane actions to an insane person seem quite normal and the psychopaths in control are completely mad. I just look at it as a continued buying opportunity. Once the metals sky-rocket, there is no way I can budget them in.

    Just a refresher, here is the experiment:

    The Marshmallow Test: Psychological Experiments in Self-Control
    http://www.eatmedaily.com/2009/09/psychological-experiments-in-self-control-the-marshmallow-test/

    In this reprise of a now-classic Stanford psychological experiment from the 1960s, kids are put in a room with a marshmallow and told they can either eat it immediately or wait until the researcher gets back, and they’ll be given a second marshmallow. Hilarity ensues as the kids suffer marshmallow temptation!

    But the consequences go deeper: In the New Yorker article “Don’t!” (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/18/090518fa_fact_lehrer?currentPage=all) from May that detailed the very same experiment, it turned out that the ones who passed the marshmallow test enjoyed greater success as adults. Said Walter Mischel, the Stanford professor of psychology in charge of the experiment, “What we’re really measuring with the marshmallows isn’t will power or self-control… It’s much more important than that. This task forces kids to find a way to make the situation work for them. They want the second marshmallow, but how can they get it? We can’t control the world, but we can control how we think about it.”

    God bless each and every one of you for speaking the truth as you see it. That is what they call your ‘Testimony’

    Regards,
    Jeff

  • Jeff

    Oh and I would like to add one more caveat. In listening to Greg Hunter interview both Rob Kirby of Kirby analytics and more recently Jim Willie, I believe them both to be right, that all this manipulation and the end of the current paradigm will come when China ceases to get their gold. Gold is a finite object and China is consuming it faster than they and the world can produce. Once the west can no longer supply the Chinese gold, Game Over. My question is why has my home country of Canada just liquidated (literally melted down) tonnes of gold coins that were minted at the turn of the century and who bought it?

    Now with that being said, according to Karen Hudes, the world has far more gold than is on record. She claims that there are 1000’s and 1000’s of tons of gold, stored in underground vaults in Hawaii. So who really knows how long this could play out.

    I believe once this finishes playing out, there will be war.

    Thanks again.
    Jeff

    • Ed_B

      “She claims that there are 1000′s and 1000′s of tons of gold, stored in underground vaults in Hawaii.”

      That sounds like one of the most bogus claims ever made. Hawaii? An island 2,500 miles from the US mainland that is prone to earthquakes, volcanoes, and invasion? Hawaii also produces no gold, so it’s not like they put any vaults there to be near the source of supply. Hawaii would have to be the world’s worst place to store gold.

      • Rainmaker

        Its in Hawaii because its easier to transfer to the landlord. Wake up, we don’t own this, we have become renters. Lemme put it another way, we are no longer milk cows, we are meat cows.

      • Owl

        Having ridden dirt bikes in the canyons and valleys of West Oahu I can testify that there are numerous military/government bunkers located in their walls. I have seen them close up… Do I know what is in them? No Idea

        The US military has built a lot of secret facilities there, most were started around the time of WWII but perhaps some way before that. Do you know that they shipped in foreign miners and hollowed out a couple of mountain ridges above Pearl Harbor around Halawa Valley in order to store Diesel Fuel for Pearl Harbor? There are underground pipelines that run from these areas down to Pearl Harbor. There are some big fuel storage tanks along Nimitz Hwy on the way to Honolulu but those are in no way large enough to supply Pearl Harbor for any length of time and they are open targets. The main refinery is out at Barbers Point and the tankers moor offshore to offload the crude.

        Never say Never…

    • lastmanstanding

      Jeff…”melted down Canadian coins from the turn of the century?”

      Kinda sounds like a description of the gold that was just shipped to Germany as there first payment…of which it was still only half of what it was to be.

      Several sites in my travels, describe the Germans recently received booty as what looks to be a duller, not as shiny “gold”…often described as old gold coins as they had additional metal added to stiffen them up.

  • prestodo

    Great article! Just like I’ve been saying for a long time. Money (to include Gold and Silver) has been manipulated by somebody since it was invented. Money is a control mechanism that allows a person or persons control or influence over others. It’s a big farce. Gold and silver have been manipulated for thousands of years as well as other value based markets. Should we expect that anything will change with this reality??? Just as I’ve said before, you can’t eat gold and silver and the best way to prepare for economic collapse is to get your own house in order and get some food storage as well as a means to defend yourself and family.

  • Hoser

    I hold PM’s, in one hand, because I know the Dollar will eventually go to Zero. What’s in my other hand you ask? A really big GUN!

    I enjoy listening to all the usual suspects when it comes to economics, geopolitical issues, corruption, Etc… After awhile, you begin to align with those who share your beliefs, and frustrations, as you connect the dots to this massive ponzi-scheme. There are several things on my radar scope: 1) Death of the Petro-Dollar 2) Our government’s Illegal Drug Trafficking 3)Our military being Burned-Out in support of 1 & 2 4) rising Youth unemployment (where Revolutions are born) and 5) The assault on our 2nd amendment thru US Governmental False Flags. I have more but these are the ones I watch closely.

    IMO, we have an Illegitimate President who acts more like a dictator than a Constitutionalists. Also, if you don’t know who Valerie Jarrett is, I recommend you take the rest of today to find out. She is the true power behind Obama and it is her that runs this country. She’s evil and I suspect she’s Damaged-Goods. If and when all hell breaks loose, she will need to be taken-out first!

  • Tom Aumeg

    TPTB are not stupid. They see their scheme breaking down. They have two possible outcomes, and while they push the first, they are certainly preparing for the second, in case the first fails.

    1. Consolidate all worldly power in themselves. They will try to push a messiah on the world, as their agent to do so (“The T-O Genome outlines this plot).

    2. If this should fail, they are in danger of being wiped out completely, along with their fiat currency systems. It stands to reason that they’re accumulating precious metals also.

  • tony

    sell…sell…sellllllllll!

  • Me

    I don’t know about any of you but I feel much better holding my savings in PMs. Savings are for the long term. Fiat is to spend. The trouble with people’s financial strategy is that they lump PMs in with stocks and bonds and money. PMs are a whole different animal. They are the foundation upon which all stability is found, they are not there for a get rich quick investment. People should stop griping about the only real financial security they have. You should not buy physical metals with the idea of selling them again in a few months or a year or two. If you want the quick buy and sell, stick to paper.

  • Rojelio

    Thanks Tom G. Very good point. Excellent point, given the last 2 years. I share your annoyance when the spot price goes up 30 cents and the bloggers write ‘to the moon’ articles. However, I believe your analysis is incomplete.

    1. you’re not making any attempt to analyze how much gold is left in the west/east transfer game. You’re implying that the ‘imminent’ default theme is bullshit because its been bullshit for the last couple of years. Maybe so, but have you really worked the numbers? Parabolic curves (like our debt) violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics and more often than not reverse violently.

    2. Regarding the taxation issue, you seem to be basing your vision of paradigm 2 based upon your perception of paradigm 1; that is the same people still have complete control. While I cannot make predictions worth a shit, we do know that a massive black market takes over when the normal markets fail. The Russian mafia is an excellent example of this in the 90s. you won’t be analyzing the same market(s). I kind of agree with Dmitry Orlov that PMs are not an answer because you’ll simply get killed for your stack in a collapse situation.

    3. Then there’s the curious case of JP Morgue being massively long on gold as well as now being physical stackers (see Ted Butler recent article); not sure what to think of that but the equation is now markedly different.

    4. I believe that you should also consider the energy situation (read SRSrocco blog) in your analyses. The decline rate of shale oil gives an important timeline as to when things change big-time.

    5. Who’s the 1st to pull a trigger in the oil-producing regions will be just as important as the 10yr bond yields or have a serious effect on those yields. Thus, to make any forecasts, you must have a good grasp on whats going on over there.

    • lastmanstanding

      Apparently, everyone but you gets a reply to their concerns.

      I guess only a few of us get the oil/energy thing.

      No oil, no energy, no nothing…and that includes more technology and pm’s

      People have such a hard time dealing with all of the easy things being gone…so they just ignore it and hope it goes away.

      • Tom G.

        LMS- As far as responding to Rojelio, he made a lot of points but I’m not sure exactly what part of my thesis it damaged. I think they will tax us to death on the metals once they start going hockey stick as we transition to paradigm2. I’m not a peak oil guy. I’ve seen SRS’s work and it seems solid to me. But how do we really know how much oil is left or if they won’t find anymore? I think our loss of rights and economic collapse will come before peak oil (assuming that theory is true) so peak oil (which may not be true anyway) may be moot. By his own admission Rojelio “can’t make predictions worth a sh..t” so how does that damage my thesis?

        At any rate- thank you for finding and reading this article. Have a nice day.

  • Russell ..... England

    I’d rather have some than not. Hopefully I have a place in one of the life boats because this baby is going down. We’ll see once the door shuts.

  • AK

    Clearly anything is possible for 2014 and nobody can predict how low Gold and Silver prices go before we will see an inevitable rise to all time new highs. Every year that this price suppression continues the physical Gold and Silver market get tighter which moves us closer and closer to a new price discovery in the physical market instead of futures market. In the end, I have no desire to participate in a rigged stock or bond market. I only feel comfortable with physical assets that I can control and that have no counter-party risk. More and more people are expressing their lack of confidence in our financial system by pulling their money out and converting it into something tangible including Gold and Silver. I think it’s foolish to try to “time a bottom” in precious metals because the markets could literally freeze up over-night and if you have not obtained your desired allocation in physical precious metals at that time you will never be able to.

  • AK

    Although I agree with the sentiment of the article, I completely disagree with the attempt to discredit the likes of David Morgan and Andrew McGuire. In a manipulated market ALL price predictions are nonsensical; however, that does not invalidate the overall excellent analysis of the precious metal markets that these experts provide.
    In the end, the manipulation has to end when the physical market gets so tight that the futures markets become simply irrelevant and all price discoveries occur in the physical markets. This won’t happen overnight, but with the physical off-take we have seen in 2013, I predict that we will see an increasing disconnect between the futures paper price and the physical price in 2014.

    • Tom G.

      Ak- A sincere thank you for reading the article and for taking the time to comment on it. I am not trying to discredit Morgan or McGuire or Turk and Sinclair, the latter of who I took to task last year. I think you made my point- if we know the markets are manipulated and “All price predictions are nonsensical” then why do these folks continue to feel the need to make (erroneous) price predictions at all?

      If part of their “analysis” involves making price predictions then I do not think they are above criticism once they put themselves out there. Making a price prediction that is wrong can be forgiven. But then to do it continually when you know the markets are rigged does no one any good. It is just crying wolf or hoping that if you get your current prediction right then everyone will forget and forgive you for all of your previous erroneous predictions. I respect these guys. But if we are to look up to them as leaders in their analysis, then I would respect them even more if they would exercise a little reticence regarding their perpetual need to make price predictions in a market that they, of all people, know is rigged.

      Thank you again for commenting AK.

      • AK

        Tom,

        Point well taken and I commend you on a well written article, but we all know that all analysts and all investors are interested in some kind of price predictions, regardless of how unpredictable precious metal price movements may be due to the manipulations.

        I just hate to see the best and the brightest in the Silver and Gold markets continuously get slammed for putting their neck out. These people are not wrong about their analysis of the markets, they are only EARLY in their price predictions. We all know that with the global physical demand Gold and Silver should NOT be at current prices and it is obvious that TPTB have vastly intensified their efforts to not only cap any price advancements but to greatly push down the paper prices in 2014. NOBODY could have predicted that the manipulation would become so intense that even the main stream media is taking notice. I think they have over-played their hand and that this extreme price manipulation smells of desperation that will start to back-fire in 2014. I totally disagree that they can continue the manipulation indefinitely and I think they are starting to understand that themselves. They will milk it for as long as possible and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one final wash-out that collapses the price close to $1,000. That will be the day that even the most die-hard bull will capitulate and when things turn around for good. If we don’t have that final capitulation we will likely bottom bounce until some significant event will take the prices higher. I am hoping for the former to get a move on it….

        Thanks for a great article.

        AK

          • Sergio of the Jungle

            I would like to add that without price predictions (to whatever height or depth that one predicts) there would not be any point to their analysis. What would be the object of their contention if they didn’t think that something was out of whack? They have to have a price predictive measure for there to be any contention about the current manipulation. You can’t make claims of manipulation without some evidence of past performance against their measuring device. In this case it is gold backed dollars. The equation is fairly simple in US $ terms; M3 divided by ounces in reserve. It will all come back to that as a minimum. How many dollars have been created (as reported) and how many ounces do they hold (as reported but then verifiably proved). Therein lies the prediction. What they haven’t taken into account nor you given allowance for is the power of the main players to make the rules suit the situation and then use force to back it.

            • Tom G.

              Hi Sergio- Thank you for commenting. If I “haven’t given allowance for is the main players to make the rules suit the situation and then use force to back it” (in your words) then why am I contending that TPTB will egregiously tax us on the metals backed by the force of the government?

              Also, I think you incorrectly conflate price prediction with analysis. A person can analyze something without making a subsequent prediction based on what was analyzed. The one does not necessitate the other. For example, Eric King tried to get a “prediction” out of Fleckenstein regarding the gold price the other day and Fleck was having none of it. Did Fleck analyze things? Of course he did. But that did not necessitate a prediction. Does Paul Craig Roberts analyze the gold manipulation once in a while? Yes. Does he ever make a prediction about price based on this. I don’t remember hearing him make one.

              The point of my article was not to bash the so-called experts. The point was that they continually underestimate TPTB’s ability to manipulate. This underestimation on their part means that it has never occurred to them that when the prices of the metals DO rise, the government will be right there to tax us to death on them. That’s all I am saying.

              Thank you again for reading the article.

              • Sergio of the Jungle

                Flek may have chosen not to be drawn into a price prediction but you can bet your blue suede shoes that he has one. As for the fact that the government will tax you to death on the sale of gold, then don’t. Use it as capital for loans for investments. It will be your ultimate guarantee that no one else will be able to offer and that everyone else will accept when she all falls over.
                As you may have guessed, I haven’t read your article thoroughly. I was just skimming the responses and joined in. My points remain the same. You may be able to contend that something may or may not happen but the point is, someone is going to ask you to verify your argument. On this topic, gold is the numeraire and paper has been manipulated as its representation of good faith. The formula to apply is already known. It’s the answer given that most fail to believe, simply because the mathematical answer given by the equation is mind boggling. The math doesn’t lie. Do the sum.
                As for your contention: True dat. There are only death and taxes, the latter only if you allow it.

  • Andrew

    Great comments here. We are witnessing the end of an era with multiple causes for the final break down. Sure, the timing will be managed, but the type and degree of fallout is unpredictable. Like inflation, once it’s out of the box, no one has the power to close that pandora’s box when they want to. I’m impatient like most to see the psychopaths fall, but on the other hand, I have a life to enjoy with my wife, to travel and experience the freedoms that are still ours. Life on the other side will be difficult and complicated, if not painful and dangerous. If you have your ‘house in order’ now, I suggest you lean back and enjoy what is yours until things change. These are special times in being able to see the machinations of the elite behind the curtains. It is rarely so transparent. Take some satisfaction that you have decoded this information, and are prepared as best you can. Raise a glass and toast to we brothers and sisters leading this paradigm shift.

  • Rojelio

    Great sentiment. I think its not only the elites that are choosing the inflationary route. It buys some time for the majority in the status quo. While I certainly agree that many people are having a very hard time right now, huge numbers of the ‘mainstream’ people aren’t doing that bad in cities across the land. They’re furiously driving around in thick traffic, packing into restraunts, building shit and so on. Supermarkets are full of food, trucks are rolling everywhere. No wonder so many are oblivious and it seems like more than just the “1%”

  • The Truth

    I remember when Tom had his last article and spoke of the manipulations I said if the gold market does not turn around by a certain time I will be in his camp. I agree with his perspective on this article and don’t try to look at it from just one perspective. I do have this to say on the taxing part. If you control the majority of the gold, why would you implement a law to tax yourself? That to me is not how these people work. Remember, the majority of people are not in the gold and silver markets, and we are already hearing of shortages coming up. Now these shortages to me can be manufactured by the same people who own the majority of gold. This is how they make and break markets. Also, how many people do you know who can afford to buy 1 oz of gold? I know many people who have more than $5000.00 in savings and will not buy a 1/10th ounce of gold or an ounce of silver. So if we are having shortages now, where will the gold come from?

    I hate repeating this but, George Soros said that gold will be the ultimate bubble. I believe this to be true. However, they do not want the majority of us small folks riding the curtails of their so called elite status. This is why they are trying to shake us loose from the little we have. I believe they are getting to the point where they are too paper rich to convert all of it so they need us to give up that which we have. It is all about maintaining control and that is what these folks are all about. I think all Americans should watch out for China and Russia aka Gog and Magog. These countries are not Americans allies. They are your enemies, that is why they are buying up this country and stealing the gold through manipulating the prices lower..

    Check this video out. Has good info to think about:
    http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/01/chicago-commodities-broker-concerned.html

    P.S the 10yr was over 3% and that was already causing problems in the derivatives market. Notice how earlier last week gold was slammed down earlier in the week and then they came out with shoddy JOBS numbers and gold rallied and was then capped? If gold was not manipulated lower then it would have taken out resistance at $1265-$1275. That 3% will be defended because if it fails then everything else will also. Those Job numbers were only given so the 10yr yield could fall. This is a game of lies, manipulation and deceit.

  • Always Watching

    I have a question. In listening to Rory the other day, he stated that he was out of the banking system. He just leaves enough in the bank to pay his regular bills. How do you not keep a significant amount of cash in a savings account (or in banker paper of some sort) if you are supposed to have multiple months of living expenses saved up in case you lose a job or to be prepared for an unexpected car repair, etc. Do you have cash in a hole in the ground? Converting in and out of physical seems tough to me. So are there other ways to be outside the banking system but still liquid?

    • glitter 1

      You just take your cash out of the bank and keep it under the mattress.I like Rory only keep enough to pay monthly bills.Need to pay a bill,make a deposit and pay it,simple.

  • Johny

    Like Dr. Jim Willie said: “I don’t care about the comex price! You can’t manipulate price if you don’t control the supply.” The comex is in technical default and virtually have no more inventory. 400,000oz of gold if you believe that number. The question we must ask ourselves is when will the rest of the market wake up to the fact that the west lost control of supply? For as long as the perception of control persists, China will play along and suck every last ounce at discount! The stacking community needs to put out more articles on technical defaults, the JPM Chase building sale to the Chinese as a default on gold, the Germany gold repatriation failure. We need to drive the DEFAULT message hard and drum the fear into the investor’s mindset! Otherwise, the manipulation may persist until our organs are harvested!

  • glitter 1

    My Gold and Silver Bullion is still double what I paid for it in 2006,even with a 30%+ down year in 2013.However, G&S averaged ~13% every year for the first 12 yrs of this bull market.That’s the best track record for ANY ASSET IN HISTORY!If You put money in the DOW and/or S & P in 1999/2000 you lost money every year for 13 straight years and you didn’t break even until 2013,with ALL of the BS Experts on Bloomberg,CNN,CNBC,MSNBC Bleating every year that the markets are the place to be and they will be going/turning any day now.All the while I was laughing at then watching my Gold and Silver Bullion and MINING SHARES going up.The G & S market has always been manipulated,otherwise adjusted for true inflation,Gold should be >3Koz,Silver >175oz and they will get there anyway.
    The comments here are mostly from the regulars,we all have our opinions,some based on good solid logic and experience,some who need to do their homework so sound decisions can be made.Nobody had a problem with the likes of Turk,Sinclair,Sprott,Embry,et al when G&S were zooming.They weren’t lying then and they’re not lying now.The problem is most didn’t become G&S aware until late in the game,2010/11.Just like those that got into the Dow/S&P/Nasdaq in 1999/2000 just as it was topping.Remember those markets didn’t get back until 2013 and Nasdaq isn’t back yet.Most don’t make money in any market because they don’t do their homework and can’t take it when it turns down.The Amateur comments/responses here daily are no different.That’s why the vast majority let/pay someone else to manage their money.
    The experts will be vindicated.The Amateurs will be left behind.If your faith and understanding is not based on sound known verified constants,aka the Truth,then you will be whipsawed and left running scared,unable to stay the proven course.
    When the SHTF scenario arrives,and it’s coming, there will most likely be little to no warning.You will either be prepared or you won’t.In my opinion what the World is building towards will be the worst nightmare scenario,”The Love Of Many Will Wax Cold”.
    Albert Pike wrote in the late 19th century there will be Three World Wars,two have come and gone,number 3 is on deck.It will change the way people live/exist.It is all planned,it is all controlled,they have every angle covered,they will carry it out according to the script.There’s more at play here than the value/future of our metals.
    When the SHTF scenario arrives,it will come as a thief in the night,Gold and Silver will gap up,The Crimex will shut down,all available Bullion will dry up,be unattainable at any price,for how long?Who can tell.Bullets will gap up in price also,there will be no bullets available at any price.It just might be the same for Food and Gasoline.We will all get a chance to see just how smart/wise we’ve been.
    Here is my constant;

    1Th 5:21 Prove all things; hold fast that which is good.

  • Claire Page

    So glad someone wrote what I have been thinking. It’s unfair that these experts
    keep talking this way – imminent this, imminent that. We don’t need to be coddled
    with possible positives for the near term.

    The experts don’t seem to talk about TPTB as the controllers of not only metals, but
    a whole scheme of which the rest of us have been quite well educated by the
    information leaders on the internet.

    PM are a necessary preparation, but in the context of a whole scheme and we don’t
    yet know how they will be able to be used or what punishment for having them. But
    right know they are the best hard financial preparation.

    • Tom G.

      Claire Page- Thank you for reading the article. You summed up exactly what I was trying to get at. I just hate seeing people get hurt, or their hopes up too much. You are exactly right- we don’t need to be coddled. I am just trying to infuse some caution into the discussion because a lot of folks keep underestimating the lengths the cheaters and liars will go to carry out their nefarious schemes. And they have already underestimated how long this can go on. That is all I was trying to impart. My goal is not to separate us from our metals, but to suggest that when the prices start to rocket back to new highs TPTB will right their with their hands out.

      Thank you again for taking the time to read and to comment Claire.

  • John Galt

    So here’s the end game: As soon as TPTB can’t deliver on their phony paper G/S contracts, they’ll declare a halt to all PM trading in the name of “financial security for the little guy.” They’ll blame greedy PM “speculators” and “hoarders” for the market meltdown, and declare that a PM and international currency “reset” will be required to make sure the “little guy” (I.e., the debt-ridden neo-feudal slave that used to make up the middle class) doesn’t get hurt. G/S will be “revalued” in terms of some new BS global “currency”, and trading in G/S for goods and services will be declared a capital crime unless these assets are officially converted by the hoi polloi into the new global currency. (Wouldn’t want those black market speculators to take advantage of the little guy, would we?) So at the end of the day, if you’re living off of your PM “investments” today, you can expect their value to decrease continually from now on due to market manipulation while prices surge ever higher. (We will not see $1900 gold ever again before TPTB pull the plug on the whole game.) And if you’re stacking metals against future economic disaster, you’d better plan on being a fugitive felon or having to convert them to the new “Globo” or “Bancor” at a significant loss. Either way, you’re f*cked. Should you keep stacking anyway? Absolutely. Should you expect to beat TPTB at a rigged game? Absolutely not.

    • CalsailX

      A capital crime to use G/S, that could prove to be interesting. Personally I don’t see a 1933 coming, the fraud in the current system is so bad that it stinks like a dead fish.

      It’s not just a shearing at the end of the line, the butchers are standing there ready to cut some throats. They have done it all so many times, that there is a arrogance about them as they work. That most of all that may end up being their undoing.

  • Tom G.

    John Galt- Thank you for posting that. I am glad that you understood what the point of my article was and even outlined one of the plethora of nefarious schemes TPTB could come up with to try to thwart our metals insurance policy.

    You got it exactly right. Should we keep stacking? yes. Should we naively think, with all that we have seen from the liars and cheaters, that we are going to come away with the purchasing power of the metals intact? no. They will find a way to screw us as you noted in your scenario. Thanks again John Galt.

    PS- I do think there will be a window of opportunity, short though it may be (one year, two years maybe) after the old highs are taken out where we will be able to sell what we need to under the current system without being egregiously taxed. But once the metals start going “hockey stick” this will get their attention and they will stick their hands out.

    • Petedivine

      Over taxation, confiscation, or other malicious policies will simply force Americans to leave with their gold and silver. Americans would vacate to some other country with a more agreeable monetary policy and rule of law. Not to mention the ones with the most gold are the elites. I doubt they would criminalize themselves. I believe gold and silver will do well if you can keep it through the crises. Your crystal ball is no better then the predictions made by gold and silver pundits. There are simply too many factors, competing interests, unknowable facts, and random factors to predict the outcome. We only know that things are destabilizing and are trying to hedge accordingly.

  • John Galt

    Concur wholeheartedly, Tom, with the minor exception of your PS. I honestly don’t think TPTB will let gold get beyond 2K before pulling the plug on the whole game. Hell, $1900 was enough to send them into an apoplectic fit. But for all our sakes I sincerely hope you’re right about getting one last bite at the paradigm1 apple. Thanks for posting my comment!

    • Tom G.

      Hi John Galt- You make a great point. They certainly got in a tizzy when gold got to $1900. You may be right about it not making it back to 1900 in the paper market. I really appreciated the scenario you laid out. It put some meat on what I was saying. Thank you.

  • Vincent

    Well done Tom.

    The hybrid approach of being both a stacker and a trader has worked well over the past few years… whether it be paper or physical trading.
    Once one gets past the idea that ‘this all ends in flames tomorrow’ then logic is able to prevail. No room for emotion when loved ones’ futures are at stake. There were profits to be taken on the way up, and for awhile now on the way down. Just more cash to stack moving forward, and a substantially lower DCA for some who speculated correctly. The seasonal trade has worked for the last couple of years.

    What is transpiring currently (and over the last several years) is as much about psychology as it is about truth and fundamentals in the metals.
    The AG price could easily meander or even trend downward for all of 2014. There is no good short term explanation for substantial momentum upward.

    Adjusting ones expectations regarding how long this nonsense can continue should be a serious consideration. We should all hope that time is on our side. Plenty of hedging to do before shit gets real. GLTA

  • Tom G.

    Vincent- You nailed it that a lot of this is about psychology. I also agree that there is no short term reason for upward momentum. As I wrote way back last May, which has proved to be true, the inflation trade is over.

    Thank you for taking the time to comment so far down the thread.

  • TORNasunder

    How do you predict manipulated markets? You sure can’t do it using ‘fundamentals’ and ‘historical’ data. At which point you can only speculate. The smartest speculator wins. I believe Comex inventory levels are significant (but who really knows how much gold is there?), as well as JPM’s shift from net short to net long in gold. Can they keep the price below the average cost of production, which seems to be $1200-1250? But doing this puts negative pressure on gold miners to produce, which then puts upwards pressure on the price.

    I coming around to believe that the value of the US$ is expressed primarily in oil and gold. The more dollars it takes to buy either the less each dollar is worth. The more US$ the Fed prints the less each is worth and the more pressure to keep the price of Gold as low as possible. I would not be surprised if gold stays around this 1200-1300 range until TPTB can no longer contain it, at which point it goes parabolic. They can no longer hide the manipulation as the upward pressure is just to great. You can bloody feel the tension. I don’t see how this goes on for 5+ years. I’m sooner rather than later at this point. But never underestimate TPTB.

  • Tom G.

    Torn- Thank you for posting that. Just to be clear, I am not saying the manipulation of the metals prices, specifically, will go on for 5-10 years. I am saying that paradigm1 will only last that long (at the most) and then our loss of rights will accelerate. I expect the manipulation in the metals probably won’t last a whole lot longer. But that was not the point of the article. The point was that when the prices do go back up, the government will attempt to steal that purchasing power by egregiously taxing us on it. We need to stop underestimating these folks. It is going to be hard to “win” against them.

    Thank you again for taking the time to read and comment.

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