The Phaserl


Issues 2014

by Doug Noland,

Not the most bullish looking start to 2014.

“The only thing that worries me is that there isn’t anything that you can worry about…” market pundit, CNBC, December 31, 2013

“They’re [the Fed] stopping asset purchases. You can take that to the bank.” Laurence Meyer, former Federal Reserve governor, CNBC January 2, 2014

My market thesis from a year ago was one of bipolar outcome possibilities. Either the expanding Bubble would burst or it would likely evolve into “How crazy do things get?” I posited that a bursting EM Bubble was a likely catalyst for a period of global “risk off.” I also foresaw the possibility that overheated markets might push a Fed retreat from its $85 billion monthly QE. While U.S. equities and corporate debt markets turned conspicuously overheated, the Fed erred on the side of ongoing extreme monetary stimulus. Things did in fact turn “crazy,” which significantly raised the likelihood of perceived low probability (so-called) “black swans” in 2014. I’ll attempt to make my analytical case.

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