The Phaserl


Gary Shilling: Review and Forecast

by John Mauldin, Gold Seek:

In the third quarter, real GDP grew 2.8% at annual rates from the second quarter. Without the increase in inventories, the rate would be 2.0%, in line with the 2.3% average growth since the economic recovery commenced in the second quarter of 2009.

Furthermore, the step-up in inventory-building from the second quarter may have been unintended, suggesting cutbacks in production and weaker growth in future quarters. Also, consumer spending growth, 1.5% in the third quarter, continues to slip from 1.8% in the second quarter and 2.3% in the first while business spending on equipment and software actually fell at a 3.7% annual rate for only the second time since the recovery started in mid-2009. Government spending was about flat with gains in state and local outlays offsetting further declines in federal expenditures. Non-residential outlays for structures showed strength as did residential building. The 16-day federal government shutdown didn’t commence until the start of the fourth quarter, October 1, but anticipation may have affected the third quarter numbers.

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1 comment to Gary Shilling: Review and Forecast

  • Frank Zak

    By the end of 1923, thirty-three printing plants in Germany were printing a total 500 quadrillion marks every single day. During these times, you could purchase a full city block in downtown Berlin for only 25 oz of gold.

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