The Phaserl


Big Week Ahead…Pieces To the Puzzle and the Art of War

by Bill Holter,

The holiday shortened Thanksgiving week looks like it could be an important one. The Dec COMEX month is upon us and there are only 3 days left before first notice with 126,000 contracts still outstanding. This translates to 12.6 million ounces which will surely shrink over the next 3 days but the question is “by how much?” This is an important question because there are only 589,000 ounces held by dealers in the registered category.

We had a similar situation last December and the COMEX brought in a million ounces to make delivery. From that point forward the inventories have bled a gusher, COMEX total gold has gone from 11.5 million ounces to about 7 million while the dealer side has dropped from 3.5 million to under 600,000 ounces, the latter is a roughly 80% bleed. GLD which is another “source” for metal has dropped from 1,300 tons to about 850 over the last 12 months. We are also aware of a 1,300 ton “shortfall” in the inventory held by the BOE. These large decreases in inventories are now well documented and this metal has moved “East” to China, India, Russia and others. This is just one piece to the puzzle.

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