The Phaserl


Guest Post – BAD ADVICE: Why The Future Won’t Be Like The Past

by Kurt Cobb, SRS Rocco:

It’s easy to get bad advice from successful people. Here’s why: Successful people assume that the same circumstances that prevailed while they were achieving their success will generally prevail while you are pursuing yours. But, your circumstances will almost surely be different, probably in major ways.

The second mistake successful people make is that they underestimate the role of luck in their success. As it turns out, financial rewards–and that’s what Americans almost always mean when they use the word “success”–are distributed more randomly than most people at the top or even the bottom of the economic pyramid would like to admit. Who gets wealthy, especially really wealthy, is largely a matter of luck.

My comments below the article

If your measure is fame rather than wealth, the story is the same. It’s hard to imagine that the world’s 10th best concert violinist is far less talented than the world’s best concert violinist. Most of the difference in fame (and income) is in all likelihood due to luck rather than skill.

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