The Phaserl


So Was That The Bottom?


We certainly got an answer as to whether precious metals shares, or the gold price, measured against the Dow, were to define the extent of the correction last week, and gold won – again. The Dow / XAU Ratio moving to the Golden Retrace (61.8%) concurrent with a peak in the Dow / Gold Ratio might occur with a 12.5 print in the Dow / Gold Ratio, and both are close to these levels now. With the Dow / Gold Ratio not far from our 12.5 target, which as you will see below could (although not likely) represent the final low for the precious metals complex, one should be en guard regarding whether this is just an interim low, or the real deal.

As you may know from our previous work, and something that will be discussed in further detail below, in the end, whether this near term low is the big turn or not will depend on the sentiment backdrop as long as the bureaucracy’s faulty and fraudulent paper pricing mechanisms (think COMEX, ETF’s, options, etc.) are still generally setting world trade. This will all change one day, with pricing far more dependent on physical demand / supply and overall world demand to have greater impact on the trade eventually (likely set out of some other locale like China); however for now, prices are still set in New York and Chicago, so we must look at what these bunco artists are up to in order to have an idea where prices are heading next.

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