by Toby Connor, Gold Seek:
Last year I correctly spotted the three year cycle low in the CRB. I must admit the retest of that bottom has taken much longer and been far deeper than I thought it would be. However, I think the retest is over. It looks like the CRB has put in its final yearly cycle low for 2013, and that low has held above the 2012 trough.
As I have noted in the chart below, we did see a positive divergence at this year’s bottom as the dollar made a marginal new high but commodities failed to confirm that new high by breaking their 2012 three year cycle low.
So while I think commodities are finally ready for another leg up, I believe the dollar is in the final stages of putting in its three year cycle top. A three year cycle that has unfolded very weakly I might add. As you can see in the chart below over the last 4 1/2 months the dollar has begun to gyrate violently in a megaphone topping pattern.
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