The Phaserl


Fear Index June 2013: the eye of the storm

from Gold Money:

US M3 is relatively steady at just over $15.1 trillion, following the disinflationary trend of the past few months. Although US M1 and M2 continue to grow, and the Fed has still not relented from its open-ended monthly bond-buying programme, M3 growth has clearly stalled. Together with the slowdown in US industrial production and weak jobs market, and it seems to point to an economic downturn. If we take recent weakness in emerging markets as a leading indicator, it seems that the second part of the much-touted double-dip is just around the corner.

It is therefore ironic, if hardly unprecedented, that just as the monetary authorities at the US Federal Reserve seem ready to announce the end (or at least “tapering”) of the emergency, extraordinary and experimental monetary measures that they took in the aftermath of the bust of 2008, that the world is entering a recession: with the EU expected to contract this year, China’s growth slowing and the rest of the emergent countries almost grinding to a halt.

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