The Phaserl


History Shows Gold May Drop To As Low As $900 An Oz.—And Still Remain In A Bull Market

by Tekoa Da Silva, Bull Market Thinking:

Winston Churchill is famously known for having said, “The further back you look, the further ahead you can see,”  and indeed, historical precedent is one of the few tools we have at our disposal when studying major market trends, and in today’s case, the trend in gold.

The period most widely referenced and compared to today’s bull market, is the late 1970s. During this decade, gold moved from $35 an ounce, to an intraday peak of over $900 an ounce in January 1980, for a total move of roughly 26x.

When we look at today’s bull market in gold, which has moved from a bottom of $250 an ounce, to where it stands today, at $1400 an ounce—we see a 5.5x total move—a fraction of the 26x move witnessed during the 1970s.

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3 comments to History Shows Gold May Drop To As Low As $900 An Oz.—And Still Remain In A Bull Market

  • Paul Prichard (Paper Bear)

    Just don’t expect there to be much actual physical gold about.

  • Ed_B

    Oh, there’s plenty of physical gold about… around 165,000 tons if we are to believe those who publish such figures. The trick is, as the price of gold continues to fall, more people will be reluctant to sell the gold that they hold. If gold is worth $1600 an oz. to me, I will not sell it to those who insist that it is worth less than $1400 an oz. I would rather hold onto it and wait for higher prices to return.

    We saw this effect a few years ago when the price of silver dropped below $10 an oz. Yes, the price was low but there was virtually no silver to be had at those prices. Once the price rose to around $15 an oz., suddenly there was lots of silver available. It was there all the time, of course, but people simply refused to sell it at those depressed prices.

  • NaySayer

    Would somebody bitch and drop their homeowners or renter’s insurance policies if the cost to get it went down?

    No. PMs and other preps are insurance against what anybody with a brain in their head can see is coming. If you can’t afford PMs then save nickels and any pre 1982 U.S. pennies (cents). They will still be worth something after it collapses.

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