The Phaserl


The Current Drop of 31% is Not Out of Line

by David Schectman,

Susan and I are on the way back to Minnesota today.  I will not be publishing the newsletter on Thursday or Friday, but will be back in your mailbox on Monday.  Here is what my friend Trader David R has to say about the gold market yesterday:

It was a major unexpected ‘Black Swan like’ move in Gold the past two weeks. Descriptions range from its largest two day dollar decline ever, to a +30% drop from its 2011 peak, to a 7.2 Standard deviation event (which would happen every 2.7Million years*), leaving market participants largely puzzled as they searched for enough reasons to substantiate such a fall. Those looking to pinpoint one factor (one Lehman-like trigger) will be left frustrated (unless you fall in the conspiracy-camp in which possible triggers are endless…). Its safe to say the range of factors include:

– Fed Minutes confirming QE to end sooner rather than later

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