by Rick Ackerman, Rick Ackerman.com:
With a scary bank crisis in Cyprus driving the headlines a couple of weeks ago, gold could barely muster a rally. Notice in the chart below that the high of the move failed to clear a minor peak at 1619.70. Had it done so, we would have given bulls a fighting chance, since it would have created a bullish “impulse leg” with the potential to power quotes as much as $120 higher in just a few weeks. Instead, buyers showed themselves to be gutless, allowing the April contract to relapse down to within inches of the lower trendline. It could hold, but we doubt it. [Note: I have updated the chart to show that the breakdown we’d expected has in fact occurred, and decisively.]
Still worse is that a breakdown is likely to send the futures down to at least 1553.50, a Hidden Pivot support identified here a couple of weeks ago when the futures were trading above 1600. If that “hidden” support should fail as well, look out below, since the next stop would be a more important one at 1487.00 that was flagged at the same time. That would represent a 5.5% fall from current levels, which would hardly be disastrous. But it would also turn a trendline that has provided support since July of 2011 into resistance, opening a path to significantly lower prices into autumn.
Please follow SGT Report on Twitter & help share the message.